Hurricanes & Climate Change

Hurricane season runs from June 1st to November 30th, with the peak between mid-August and late October, when temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico and the Atlantic Ocean are warmest. Florida is the state most vulnerable to hurricanes and tropical storms, being hit by twice as many storms as the second-place state of Texas. And these storms are becoming more intense. According to the NOAA, tropical cyclones have become more likely to develop into major hurricanes, intensify quickly, and cause more precipitation and coastal flooding in recent years. This gives Floridians less time to prepare and will make recovery more costly. But why are hurricanes becoming more intense?

What's Changing?

Hurricane records have shown more active hurricane seasons in the Atlantic Ocean since the 1980s. There have been more storms on record that are stronger and intensify more rapidly than in the past. Most of these increases have been due to natural variations in our climate, but recent studies have begun to link the impact of climate change on hurricanes.

There are four main elements that are needed for a hurricane to form and strengthen:

• Warmer ocean waters
• More moisture in the air
• Low vertical wind shear (a wind shear is a change in wind speed or direction)
• A pre-existing disturbance (such as a cluster of thunderstorms)

Ocean surface temperatures in the Atlantic are now 3-5 degrees above normal. Rising ocean temperatures due to climate change make hurricane winds more intense. This means that a greater proportion of storms that form will reach a Category 4 or 5 on the Saffir-Simpson Wind Scale, with wind speeds over 130 miles per hour that can cause catastrophic damage.

Wind speeds are not the only concern. Flooding from hurricanes has become more of an issue as well. Tom Knutson, NOAA's leading scientist on hurricanes and climate change, notes that "even if hurricanes themselves don't change [due to climate change], the flooding from storm surge events will be made worse by sea level rise."

In addition to flooding from storm surges, models also show a 10 to 15 percent increase in rainfall rates from hurricanes by the end of the century. This is because climate change has led to warmer surface temperatures on Earth, which means more moisture in the air from evaporation, leading to greater rainfall, especially during extreme weather events such as hurricanes.

All of these factors combined could make the 2024 hurricane season the most active on record. The NOAA Climate Prediction Center predicts an 85% chance of an above-normal hurricane season with a forecasted 17 to 25 named storms (winds at 39 mph or higher) with 8 to 13 becoming hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher) with 4 to 7 major hurricanes (category 3, 4, or 5 with winds of 111 or higher).

Be Prepared

Although we cannot control the frequency or intensity of hurricanes, it is crucial to be prepared for when a storm hits. The Florida Public Radio Emergency Network offers resources for planning and preparing for hurricane season.

• Know Your Zone: Check your home's address on the Know Your Zone Map and listen for evacuation orders from local officials. If your zone is ordered to evacuate, you must listen and move to a safer area.
• Know Your Home: If you live in a mobile home or an unsafe structure, you should always evacuate before the storm hits. Move to a safer area or a local shelter. If you are not ordered to evacuate or you do not live in an evacuation zone, it may be safer to shelter in place at your home.
• Plan and Prepare: Put a plan in place well before hurricane season so that you and your family know what to do when disaster strikes.
  • Develop an Evacuation Plan:Plan where you would go and how you would get there. You don't have to go far. You could stay with a friend or relative who lives in a well-built home outside of a flood-prone area. Plan several routes to your destination and ensure you account for any pets.
  • Create a Disaster Kit: Whether you plan to evacuate or shelter in place, you must have the necessary supplies to get through the storm. You should have enough non-perishable foods, water, and medicine to last each person in your family (including pets) for at least three days, plus extra cash, a battery-powered radio, flashlights, and a portable crank or solar-powered USB charger for your cell phone.
  • Check Your Insurance: Check with your insurance agent to ensure you have enough insurance to repair or replace your home and/or belongings after a disaster. You'll need to have a separate policy for flood insurance, which requires a 30-day waiting period to use. Document your possessions: photos, serial numbers, or anything else you may need to provide your insurance company when filing a claim.
  • Create a Communication Plan: Write down your hurricane plans and share them with your family so you know how to contact each other if you are separated. Establish a meeting place that's familiar and easy to find. List your emergency contacts, including utilities and other services, in case the internet is inaccessible during or after the storm.
  • Strengthen Your Home:Improve your home's ability to withstand a storm before it hits. Take the time to do upgrades or repairs, such as trimming trees, installing storm shutters or impact glass, sealing outside wall openings, and upgrading garage doors to withstand high winds.
• Have Multiple Ways to Get Alerts: Getting emergency alerts and public safety updates in your local community is a life-saving service. Download the Florida Storms app to get alerts and hurricane preparedness tips. Sign up for Alert Florida, the statewide emergency notification system, for evacuation updates and safety notifications.

We know storms are becoming more intense and frequent due to climate change. Ensuring you and your loved ones are prepared is the best way to make sure you are safe when a major hurricane is heading for Florida.

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